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ESPN staff
The Week 11 NFL schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 11 slate, including a big AFC East matchup between the New York Jets visiting the New England Patriots and the 8-1 Minnesota Vikings hosting the Dallas Cowboys. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the 49ers and the Cardinals on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
NYJ-NE | PHI-IND | DET-NYG
CLE-BUF | LAR-NO | CHI-ATL
CAR-BAL | WSH-HOU | LV-DEN
DAL-MIN | CIN-PIT | KC-LAC | SF-ARI
Thursday: TEN 27, GB 17
Bye: MIA, SEA, TB, JAX
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1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: NE -3 (38.5)
What to watch for: Jets QB Zach Wilson threw three interceptions in a 22-17 loss to New England on Oct. 30, and was already talking about a rematch with the Patriots in the immediate aftermath of that game. Jets head coach Robert Saleh said of Wilson: “From a narrative standpoint, to try to attack a young man for 4-5 plays, when they are 4-5 teachable moments in my mind, I think we’re missing the big picture on that.” Meanwhile, Patriots QB Mac Jones was sacked six times that day, his first full game returning from a high ankle sprain. He said he did a “full audit” of his first half of the season during this past bye week, and offensive playcaller Matt Patricia said: “I think he matures every single week with the way that he sees the game, plays the game and understands from a team standpoint how we need to play a particular game each week.” — Mike Reiss
Bold prediction: Neither team will crack 20 points. This will be an old-fashioned, rock ’em-sock ’em defensive struggle between two of the top defenses. They’re tied for second in points allowed per game (15.8) since Week 4. The last time the two rivals played a game in which neither team reached 20 points was 2014 — a 17-16 win for the Patriots. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Patriots are 1-3 coming off a bye with anyone but Tom Brady at QB under Bill Belichick, including 0-2 the past two seasons (Brady was 14-4). They haven’t lost to an AFC East opponent after a bye since 2000
What to know for fantasy: Prior to the Week 10 bye, Garrett Wilson was coming into his own. The rookie was a top-15 receiver in both Week 8 and Week 9 — can he keep the good times rolling against the Pats? See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Jets have won against the spread, as well as outright, in five of their past six games. The only game the Jets didn’t cover or win outright was against the Patriots in Week 8 (+3, lost by 5). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Jets 24, Patriots 21
Walder’s pick: Jets 19, Patriots 16
FPI prediction: NE, 50.4% (by an average of 0.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Oral history of the wild OT coin toss the last time the Jets beat Patriots … Belichick wants coach’s challenges allowed with under 2 minutes … Why Patriots, Bills, Jets and Dolphins could win — or lose — the AFC East
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PHI -7 (44)
What to watch for: The Eagles are fresh off their first loss of the season. But they will have some notable institutional knowledge that could certainly help them in this game. Coach Nick Sirianni was the Colts’ offensive coordinator for three seasons before taking over in Philadelphia, helping recently fired Colts coach Frank Reich build the very system the Eagles will defend on Sunday. And defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon was a Colts secondary coach before joining Sirianni’s staff, giving him extensive experience defending the Colts’ scheme in practices. — Stephen Holder
Bold prediction: Jonathan Taylor will be held under 100 yards rushing. The Eagles have allowed 320 yards and two touchdowns on the ground the past two weeks against the Texans and Commanders. It has the team’s attention. The front office signed defensive tackles Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh this week, and stopping the run has been a focal point of the coaches coming off Monday’s loss to the Commanders. Expect them to load up the box more against Indy. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Eagles are the 29th team to start 8-0 or better in the Super Bowl era; 11 of the previous 28 (39%) and four of the past eight lost consecutive games immediately following the undefeated start, the most recent being the 2020 Steelers.
What to know for fantasy: Taylor garnered 85.7% of Colts RB touches last week and rewarded his patient fantasy managers. That was his second-highest rate of the season, and with a new head coach at the command in Jeff Saturday, Taylor once again feels like the asset you spent the first overall pick on three months ago. See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Colts haven’t been an underdog of 6-plus points at home since 2017 against the Steelers, which they covered. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 27, Colts 17
Walder’s pick: Eagles 34, Colts 10
FPI prediction: PHI, 68.5% (by an average of 5.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: MVP Watch: Hurts is in close contention … Inside Jeff Saturday’s first week as Colts coach … Eagles add DT Joseph to aid run defense, TE Goedert lands on IR … Colts LB Leonard has 2nd back surgery in 5 months
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: NYG -3 (45)
What to watch for: This game will be a different kind of test for the Giants’ defense. The Lions will be their first matchup with any team currently ranked in the top 10 in passing offense this season. Detroit has the NFL’s eighth-ranked passing attack, with 241.4 yards per game. The best passing attack the Giants have faced this season has been the Seahawks, who are currently ranked 13th. The Giants have given up more than 23 points only once — to Seattle — while the Lions are averaging 24.3 points per game. — Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: Lions rookie defensive end Aidan Hutchinson will register a sack for the third straight road game. Although Detroit’s team defense still needs a lot of work, the 2022 No. 2 overall pick says he’s growing more comfortable as the season progresses because he’s being positioned by the coaching staff to succeed. Hutchinson leads all rookies in sacks with 5.5 and last recorded a sack at Chicago on Nov. 13 and 1.5 sacks in Dallas on Oct. 23. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: The Giants’ seven one-score wins are tied for the most in a team’s first nine games in NFL history (1987 Chargers, 2006 Colts and 2022 Vikings). No team in NFL history has won eight one-score games within its first 10 games of a season.
What to know for fantasy: Amon-Ra St. Brown bounced back with a huge Week 10 in Chicago (121 yards and 22.1 fantasy points), but things get tough this week against a Giants team that hasn’t allowed a receiver to crack 17.5 fantasy points since Week 3. See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: Six of the Lions’ nine games this season have hit the over (66.7%), tied for second-highest rate in the league this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Giants 28, Lions 23
Walder’s pick: Lions 23, Giants 20
FPI prediction: NYG, 67.3% (by an average of 4.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Lions ended list of ‘brutal’ streaks with win vs. Bears … Week 11 buzz: Saquon market, upsets and more … New position key to Giants DT Lawrence’s sudden rise
0:47
Mike Clay thinks Daniel Jones might be a worthwhile QB fantasy pick in Week 11.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -8 (42)
What to watch for: With a winter storm headed to western New York, the game has been moved indoors to Ford Field in Detroit, and the elements have been thrown out of the picture. But a big test still awaits a Bills defense that has shown a recent weakness against the run. Browns running back Nick Chubb leads the league with 11 rushing touchdowns and is third in rushing yards (904). The Bills’ defense has allowed 145-plus rushing yards in each of the past three games. — Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: QB Josh Allen, who has struggled with turnovers all year, especially in last weekend’s wild loss to Minnesota, won’t throw a pick against Cleveland’s beleaguered defense. The Browns have intercepted only three passes this season. — Jake Trotter
Stat to know: Allen has thrown multiple interceptions in three straight games, the longest streak of his career. With two interceptions on Sunday, he would be the fourth Bills QB to throw multiple INT in four straight games, the first since 1985.
What to know for fantasy: Gabe Davis found the end zone last week against the Vikings, and he could provide nice value again this week against a Browns defense that allows the fourth-highest completion percentage on deep passes (58.2%, league average: 45.6%). See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is 7-1 ATS as an underdog of at least 3.5 points. His largest career underdog role is 8 points in the 2020 AFC divisional playoffs at Kansas City, which he covered. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 26, Browns 21
Walder’s pick: Bills 30, Browns 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 80.5% (by an average of 10.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Watson practices as Browns prep Brissett for Bills … Why Patriots, Bills, Jets and Dolphins could win — or lose — the AFC East
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: NO -3 (39)
What to watch for: The Saints said they’re sticking with QB Andy Dalton despite the team’s offensive struggles the past two weeks, but don’t expect the offensive output to suddenly reverse course. While the team did get wide receiver Jarvis Landry back last week, it’ll potentially be missing three offensive linemen for the second straight game. Left guard Andrus Peat missed last week with a triceps injury, center Erik McCoy is on injured reserve and left tackle James Hurst is in concussion protocol, making the Saints likely short-handed against Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald. — Katherine Terrell
Bold prediction: The Rams will force a takeaway for the first time since Week 6. Not only have the Rams not taken the ball away in three games, but the defense has just one takeaway in its past seven games combined. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: With 19 turnovers, the Saints lead the NFL this season and have their most through 10 games since 2014 (also 19). On the flip side, the Rams have failed to record a takeaway in three straight games and have one takeaway in their past seven games combined.
What to know for fantasy: Alvin Kamara has let you down in consecutive weeks (not a top-20 running back in either), and the sledding doesn’t get easier this week against a Rams defense that has allowed just one running back not named Christian McCaffrey to clear 15 fantasy points in a game this season (that said, it was James Conner last week). See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: This is the third dome game in the past three seasons to feature a total in the 30s. The previous two went under. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Rams 22, Saints 17
Walder’s pick: Rams 20, Saints 9
FPI prediction: NO, 53.6% (by an average of 1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Stafford expected to start vs. Saints … Saints stick with QB Dalton after mulling change … Kupp undergoes ankle surgery
1:05
Adam Schefter expects to see Matthew Stafford start for the Rams in Week 11 and is interested to see who he targets without Cooper Kupp.
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: ATL -3 (49)
What to watch for: Expect a lot of running as the Bears and Falcons have two of the best rushing attacks in the league — Chicago is No. 1 (201.7 yards per game) and Atlanta is No. 4 (160.4 yards per game) — combined with two defenses that allow a lot of rushing yards (Atlanta 119.4, Chicago 142) and struggle to get off the field on third down (Atlanta allowing 46.6% third down conversions, Chicago 50%). So there could be a lot of on-the-ground offense at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. — Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: Chase Claypool will top 80 receiving yards and a touchdown in Atlanta. There’s no better time for the new Bears wide receiver to emerge as a playmaker than against the Falcons’ league-worst pass defense (280.1 yards allowed per game). Claypool has been targeted eight times since he arrived in Week 9 and totaled three catches for 21 yards. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy intimated that Claypool is close to being up to speed with Chicago’s complex route tree, so this game is where the Bears get a breakout performance from the speedy vertical threat they traded for at the deadline. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose three straight games while scoring more than 29 points in each game. No team has lost four straight while scoring 28-plus points in each game.
What to know for fantasy: The superlatives for Justin Fields are overwhelming. Over the past four weeks, he has 38.9 more fantasy points than any other player (that’s the same difference between the second-best player in fantasy and the 54th best over that stretch). Or how about the fact that over those four weeks, he has outscored the three primary pieces of Atlanta’s pass game (Marcus Mariota, Kyle Pitts and Drake London) by himself. See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in its past four games after starting the season 6-0 ATS. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bears 26, Falcons 21
Walder’s pick: Bears 23, Falcons 17
FPI prediction: ATL, 68.1% (by an average of 5.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: With 5 TDs in past 3 games, Bears TE Kmet emerging as red zone threat … Four issues the Falcons must fix over the final eight games … Bears second-leading rusher Herbert (hip) goes on IR
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: BAL -13 (41)
What to watch for: The Ravens’ strong run defense looks to slow down D’Onta Foreman. Since becoming Carolina’s top running back, Foreman has gained over 100 yards rushing in three of his past four games. Baltimore, though, hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 18 straight games (not since Dalvin Cook in Week 9 of 2021). The Ravens have allowed one 100-yard rusher in the past two seasons, which ranks as the fewest in the NFL. Baltimore’s defense has gotten even more stout with the acquisition of middle linebacker Roquan Smith. — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: Foreman will have at least 118 yards rushing for the third time in four games against a Ravens defense ranked third in the NFL, averaging 92 yards per game. He’ll also score three rushing touchdowns against a defense that has allowed only nine to keep this game closer than many expect. — David Newton
Stat to know: The Ravens have gained 150-plus rushing yards in eight straight games, the longest single-season streak by any team in the past 35 seasons. Only four teams in the Super Bowl era have longer streaks (the 1972 and ’73 Dolphins, 1975 Steelers and 1985 Bears). All won the Super Bowl.
What to know for fantasy: Foreman has run for over 115 yards in each of the past three games in which he has seen at least 10 carries. After a 31-carry effort on Thursday night and given the desire in this game to keep Lamar Jackson on the sidelines, double-digit carries feel like a safe bet this week. See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Panthers are 1-15 in their past 16 games as the double-digit underdog but won the most recent one in Week 7 against the Buccaneers. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Ravens 31, Panthers 20
Walder’s pick: Ravens 34, Panthers 13
FPI prediction: BAL, 85.5% (by an average of 12.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Panthers players buying into interim coach Wilks … With easiest remaining schedule, can Jackson and Ravens win out? … Panthers’ Mayfield stuns team with helmetless head-butts … Ravens’ Andrews inspires children who have diabetes … Panthers’ Mayfield focused on winning, not his future
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: WSH -3 (41)
What to watch for: Coach Ron Rivera decided to roll with quarterback Taylor Heinicke over Carson Wentz since the Commanders have won four out of their past five games. Neither is playing drastically better than the other, as Heinicke has a passer rating of 82 and Wentz’s rating is 84. The Texans’ pass defense holds quarterbacks to a rating of 87, the ninth lowest in the NFL. So expect the Commanders to run the ball, as the Texans have allowed 1,636 yards on the ground, most in the NFL. — DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: Brian Robinson will surpass 100 yards for the first time in his career against the NFL’s worst run defense. Robinson is averaging 3.3 yards per carry, but that’s been a function of some missed blocks as well as him getting used to running in the NFL. He missed the first four games after being shot twice in the leg in August. But with the tight end group getting healthier, especially blocking tight end John Bates, and with a stronger commitment to calling runs by offensive coordinator Scott Turner, there should be some bigger games in Robinson’s future, especially if the line improves on some details with footwork. Big runs will follow Sunday. — John Keim
Stat to know: The Commanders are 2-4 in games Wentz started at quarterback this season, averaging 17 points per game. They are 3-1 in games Heinicke started, averaging 22 points per game.
Injuries: Commanders | Texans
What to know for fantasy: Terry McLaurin got rolling on Monday night against a stingy Eagles defense (eight catches for 128 yards), and now faces a Texans defense that has seen only seven receivers gash it for over 15 fantasy points in a game this season (18.5 from Darius Slayton last week). See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: This is the 16th consecutive game Houston will be an underdog, the longest active streak in the NFL, and the second-longest streak in franchise history (19 straight in 2002-03). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Commanders 20, Texans 14
Walder’s pick: Texans 24, Commanders 20
FPI prediction: WSH, 57.9% (by an average of 2.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Heinicke iced out after Commanders win over Eagles … Texans claim Amari Rodgers after Packers release … Heinicke to start again Sunday; Wentz not ready … A fun tradition: Heinicke buys Jordans for teammates after win vs. Eagles
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: DEN -3 (41)
What to watch for: Beyond two first-year head coaches on fast-warming seats, the Raiders are the only team to have carved out more than 307 yards’ worth of offense against the Broncos this season and the only team to have scored more than 19 points this season against the league’s No. 1 scoring defense — they did both in the Raiders’ 32-23 win in Week 4. Oh, and the Raiders rushed for a season-most 212 yards against the Broncos’ defense as well. — Jeff Legwold
Bold prediction: With the Broncos’ No. 1-ranked scoring defense keyed up to stop the run after Josh Jacobs rumbled for 144 yards against it in Week 4, Raiders QB Derek Carr will have his first three-TD passing game since Dec. 6, 2020. Yes, against a Broncos defense that has not allowed such a game since Nov. 8, 2020. Carr was emotional at the postgame podium last week, but said Raiders owner Mark Davis giving first-year coach Josh McDaniels his support despite the team’s disappointing 2-7 start gave the team a sense of relief and “confidence as a football team.” — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: The Broncos have scored more than 20 points only twice this season, with their season high of 23 coming in a Week 3 loss to the Raiders.
What to know for fantasy: Davante Adams has racked up at least 95 receiving yards or found the end zone in eight of nine games this season and was responsible for 53.7% of Carr’s passing yards in the first meeting with the Broncos this season. You don’t have to like this passing game to love what Adams is giving you in his first season away from Green Bay. See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: Las Vegas is 9-1 ATS (8-2 SU) in its past 10 meetings against Denver, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog in that span (3-2 SU). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Broncos 24, Raiders 21
Walder’s pick: Raiders 26, Broncos 16
FPI prediction: LV, 62.7% (by an average of 3.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Barnwell picks the NFL’s luckiest and unluckiest teams: Why Raiders qualify for both … Banged-up Broncos get good news on Jeudy … Carr, Adams applaud owner’s defense of McDaniels … Wilson, offense trending historically downward … Carr emotional at podium after Raiders’ latest loss
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: DAL -1.5 (47.5)
What to watch for: The Cowboys won at U.S. Bank Stadium in 2020 and 2021 and are favored heading into this matchup even after losing Sunday at Green Bay. That could have something to do with the Vikings’ thrilling but taxing overtime victory Sunday at Buffalo, a game that featured 178 plays, including special teams. Over the past 20 years, NFL teams are 127-133 in the game immediately following a road game that went to overtime, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. — Kevin Seifert
Bold prediction: CeeDee Lamb will have more receiving yards than Justin Jefferson. Jefferson has five catches for 107 yards and a touchdown vs. Dallas. Lamb has 10 catches for 146 yards and a touchdown vs. Minnesota, including a 100-yard effort. Last week against the Green Bay Packers, Lamb had career highs in catches (11) and yards (150). On Sunday, he will post back-to-back 100-yard games consecutively for the second time in his career. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has 39 straight games with a passing touchdown, the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest streak since Drew Brees went 45 straight from 2012 to 2015
What to know for fantasy: Tony Pollard has totaled 275 yards and four scores in the past two games without Ezekiel Elliott. How does this split look if Zeke is back? Pollard did clear 85 total yards in two of his past three with Elliott active, so pencil him into lineups regardless. See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: All five meetings between Dak Prescott and Cousins have gone over the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 34, Vikings 27
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 27, Vikings 24
FPI prediction: DAL, 56.6% (by an average of 2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cowboys know Achilles’ heel is run defense, so how do they fix it? … Jefferson, Jeff Saturday top NFL quotes of the week … A turning point for Cowboys? Why loss to Packers isn’t ‘just one game’
1:24
Stephen A. Smith weighs in on whether Dak Prescott is the Cowboys’ weakest link after an overtime loss to the Packers.
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CIN -4 (41)
What to watch for: Call this one the appendectomy bowl. Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick was projected to miss a couple of weeks after undergoing an appendectomy Saturday following the team’s pre-Saints walk-through. But Mike Tomlin said early reports of Fitzpatrick’s recovery this week were positive, meaning there’s a chance he’s on the field to face quarterback Joe Burrow, who also had an emergency appendectomy after his appendix ruptured in late July. Fitzpatrick was a force in the season opener against the Bengals, picking off Burrow’s first pass attempt for a pick-six. — Brooke Pryor
Bold prediction: Burrow will throw for 300 yards and three touchdown passes in a blowout win. On paper, Cincinnati should be positioned for a big win. The offensive line is playing much better in recent weeks, and Burrow isn’t fresh off a serious appendectomy like he was in Week 1. All of that should yield a big day for the Cincy QB. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: The Steelers are coming off their best rushing performance of the season, as they ran for 187 yards in Week 10 against the Saints, including 99 from running back Najee Harris and 51 from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett.
What to know for fantasy: The last time we saw Joe Mixon, he was setting franchise records (Week 9 vs. CAR: 211 yards and five touchdowns), but it is at least worth noting that it took him 27 totes to pick up 82 yards against the Steelers in Week 1 (and 31 of those yards came on a single carry). Lineup lock in season-long leagues, obviously, but consider your options when talking DFS. See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: After not covering the spread the first two weeks of the 2022 season the Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their past seven games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bengals 27, Steelers 20
Walder’s pick: Bengals 30, Steelers 13
FPI prediction: CIN, 79.6% (by an average of 9.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bengals following last season’s script, but will turnaround be the same? … Harris warming to Steelers’ running back-by-committee approach
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: KC -6 (51)
What to watch for: The Chargers have been decimated by injuries since a Week 2 loss to the Chiefs, but coach Brandon Staley expressed optimism that players will soon begin to return. That could include wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who returned to practice this week after missing the past two games. The Bolts know this matchup against the division leader is crucial in their attempt to earn their first playoff berth since 2018. — Lindsey Thiry
Bold prediction: The game will be decided by more than seven points, which hasn’t happened in the past four meetings when neither team is resting key players to prepare for the postseason. This time, though, the Chiefs are on a roll, having won three straight games, two by double digits. Patrick Mahomes is playing as well as he ever has. The Chargers have lost two of three. The Chiefs haven’t lost to the Chargers in Southern California since 2013. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Mahomes’ run of 13 straight wins in road division games is the second longest by a starting QB since the 1970 merger, trailing Hall of Famer Joe Montana’s 20-game run with the 49ers from 1984 to 1993.
What to know for fantasy: Isiah Pacheco out-snapped Jerick McKinnon 35-23 last week, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was on the field for just four plays. The lead back in this explosive offense comes with top-15 potential, and Pacheco certainly seems to have the inside track as we approach the stretch run of the fantasy season. See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: This is only the third time the Chargers have been an underdog this season. They covered the spread during the first two, including last week against the 49ers (lost 22-16 as an 8-point ‘dog). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 35, Chargers 28
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 38, Chargers 24
FPI prediction: KC, 80.2% (by an average of 10 points)
Matchup must-reads: NFL MVP watch 2022: Ranking top candidates, Mahomes’ chances … Allen, Williams practice, but two DLs go on IR … Chiefs ‘mad’ over no-call as Smith-Schuster enters concussion protocol
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: SF -8 (43.5)
What to watch for: DeAndre Hopkins has had at least 100 receiving yards in two of his four games this season and 98 in a third. That doesn’t bode well for a 49ers defense that’s allowed three 100-yard receivers and two others with 98 and 97 yards. Hopkins also could be bolstered by the possible return of Marquise Brown, who’s eligible to be activated at any point during the next three weeks. Hopkins has shown that he’s capable of going for big games with both Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy at quarterback, so another 100-yard game could be in store in prime time in Mexico City on Monday night. — Josh Weinfuss
Bold prediction: The 49ers will have at least 230 yards after the catch. The highest output by a team this season was the 229 YAC the Broncos had in Week 1 against the Seahawks. But this matchup skews heavily in favor of the Niners’ ability to stress Arizona’s tackling. Entering this week, San Francisco is fourth in the league in YAC per game and first in YAC per reception. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ defense allows the most YAC per game and YAC per reception in the NFL. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The 49ers have scored on 50% of their drives since acquiring running back McCaffrey, the third-highest rate in the NFL. They were scoring on only 29% of their drives prior. McCaffrey has been on the field for seven of their eight offensive touchdowns since the trade.
What to know for fantasy: Kenneth Walker III was the only running back last week to account for a higher percentage of his team’s backfield touches than James Conner (96%). It’s been a bumpy ride, but Conner appears poised to pay off his preseason price tag at the exact right time for fantasy managers. See Week 11 rankings.
Betting nugget: After going under for four consecutive weeks in Weeks 3-6, Cardinals games have gone over the total the past four weeks. Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 27
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Cardinals 22
FPI prediction: SF, 68.8% (by an average of 5.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Despite win, Shanahan baffled by Greenlaw ejection … Cardinals QB Murray feels ‘good’ but unsure of status for MNF … Watt pays out fan’s parlay after blown call