Tesla Model Y has a real shot at becoming the best-selling passenger vehicle of 2024 in the US. Only the Toyota Rav4 stands in its way.
Last year, Electrek made the Model Y its ‘car of the year’ despite launching in 2020 – three years prior.
The Model Y improved between 2020 and 2023, but that’s not really why we made it the ‘car of the year’. It was always a great vehicle, but its impact alone, as the best-selling car in the world and the first electric vehicle to do so, made it deserving of the title.
While Model Y became the best-selling vehicle in the world, it did not have this honor in Tesla’s home market: the US.
It might get it this year.
According to registration data from Experian and gathered by WolfStreet, the Model Y is just a hair short of catching up to the Toyota Rav4 after the first half of 2024:
Of note, the Model Y is the only all-electric vehicle in the top 10. Although, there are all-electric versions of the Silverado and Equinox, and it’s not clear whether or not they are included in their market shares.
Toyota also has a plug-in hybrid version of the Rav4.
The question is whether or not Model Y can outpace the Rav4 enough in the second half of the year to catch up.
It’s a real possibility. As we recently reported, Tesla’s sales are doing OK in China, but they are significantly down in Europe. The US is expected to make the difference and buyers have been showered with incentives lately, which should boost Tesla’s performance in the US.
With strong performances in Q3 and Q4, there’s a real chance Model Y could come out on top by the end of the year.
However, Model Y is Tesla’s only best-seller in the US right now as Model 3 has dropped off.
As a brand, Tesla holds a 4% market share in the US and would need to more than double its overall sales in the US to break into the top 5:
| Share Registrations by Automaker | 2024 first half | |
| 1 | GM | 17.0% |
| 2 | Toyota | 15.4% |
| 3 | Ford | 12.4% |
| 4 | Hyundai-Kia | 10.8% |
| 5 | Honda | 8.7% |
| 6 | Stellantis | 8.3% |
| 7 | Nissan | 6.5% |
| 8 | Tesla | 4.1% |
| 9 | Subaru | 4.1% |
| 10 | VW | 3.6% |
However, Tesla should still be commended for being in the top 10, considering most of these other brands have a 50—to 100-year start on the young electric automaker.