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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
Before the 2024-25 NHL season, we made bold predictions for all 32 teams, ranging from individual player achievement to where teams would end up in the standings.
With almost a quarter of the season in the books, some of these predictions have already come true … while others are teetering on the brink of being absolutely egregious.
Here’s a progress report on our bold predictions. We’ll rate each prediction on a 1-10 scale, with “1” indicating that the prediction absolutely will not come true and “10” indicating that I absolutely nailed it. Enjoy!
Atlantic Division
This will be Jim Montgomery’s last season in Boston
Montgomery didn’t have a contract beyond this season, despite GM Don Sweeney’s claim that the two sides were talking extension. Sweeney said on Wednesday that it was a matter of financial disagreement, but also added several times that a performance factored into the talks.
I thought it was fairly obvious that if the Bruins didn’t meet expectations of management, Monty would meet the same fate as the other Jack Adams winners (Claude Julien, Bruce Cassidy) that were dismissed by the Cam Neely regime. What I didn’t anticipate was the dismissal happening after just 20 games. Montgomery was fired on Tuesday and replaced by associate coach Joe Sacco after Boston’s 8-9-3 start (.475 points percentage).
Boston was 31st in team offense (2.40 goals per game) and 28th in defense (3.45 goals against per game), the latter being a product of their suddenly porous goaltending. Montgomery wasn’t the reason Jeremy Swayman had an .884 save percentage through 14 games or that Boston decided to break up the best goalie tandem in the NHL by trading Linus Ullmark to Ottawa. This disappointing season is a matter of construction over coaching … but there’s no denying that Montgomery’s heralded defensive system was less effective ever since Patrice Bergeron called it a career.
Montgomery did what he could to light a fire under the Bruins, including when he benched David Pastrnak recently. Now it’s Sweeney trying to light a fire under the Bruins by sending Montgomery packing.
Nailed this one. Wish they could have all been this easy …
Bold prediction confidence rating: 10
The playoff drought ends
I’m not the first person nor the last person to get burned for naïve optimism about the Buffalo Sabres returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
They rehired the coach from the last playoff qualifier, Lindy Ruff, to figure out what to do with a young collection of promising players. I figured he’d get them to play better defensively, and he has: The Sabres are sixth in expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (2.29), an improvement from last season. I thought that the Sabres could be like Ruff’s teams in New Jersey and score their way out of problems. They’re 11th in goals per game (3.33). All of this is promising.
But I also wrote this: “While Ruff doesn’t have Dominik Hasek or Ryan Miller between the pipes, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was strong last season and Devon Levi’s underlying numbers showed promise.”
UPL has been slightly above expected (.903 save percentage). Levi has been a not-ready-for-primetime disaster: 2-5-0 and a minus-7.5 goals saved above expected before he was demoted to the AHL.
But I’m keeping the faith here, given how the Eastern Conference has shaken out. Money Puck gives the Sabres a 17.3% chance of making the playoffs, and it would likely have to be in that last wild-card spot. They’re within striking distance. If they can avoid the two steps forward/two steps back dance, they still have a shot at breaking the drought.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 5
Hitting reverse in Motor City
If the Red Wings were going to finally make the leap from the Atlantic Division also-rans to make the playoffs for the first time under general manager Steve Yzerman, they needed to improve defensively. Alas, they’ve giving up about as much (3.33) as the analytics tell us they should (3.2 expected goals against per 60 minutes in all strengths). Having the league’s worst penalty kill doesn’t help.
To Yzerman’s credit, goalie Cam Talbot was a strong offseason addition (7.2 goals saved above expected) and easily the best goalie on the roster.
It was entirely predictable that the Red Wings’ shooting percentage would come down from last season, but their offense has really taken a tumble from 3.35 goals per game last season to 2.56 in 18 games this season.
I said the Red Wings would take a step back and that they have: From a .555 points percentage last season to .444 this season. It’s getting to the point where Yzerman needs to do something to improve this group — perhaps it ends up being a change behind the bench.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 9
Regression, thy name is Sam Reinhart
I assumed Reinhart was singing for his supper in a contract year when he scored 57 goals in 82 games last season, en route to winning the Stanley Cup. He signed an eight-year, $69 million extension to remain with the Panthers … and immediately started playing like he was paid by the goal. His 14 goals left him one off of Alex Ovechkin‘s league lead through 19 games.
Reinhart’s 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes this season (1.36) is currently outpacing his average from last season (1.13) when, again, he scored 57 goals. It’s been a while since I took a statistics class, but I don’t believe that’s regression.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 1
Lane Hutson will be a Calder Trophy finalist
In the first NHL Awards Watch of the season, where we survey actual awards voters for their current picks, Hutson was in the top three for the Calder.
His 11 points in 19 games leads all rookie defensemen, although that’s not really a feat given this season’s crop of rookie blueliners. Through 19 games, he was third among all rookies in scoring.
Hutson has been “as advertised” for the Habs: Highlight-reel offense and skating, a minus-9 on a defensively challenged team. He’s getting good ice time (23:00 per game) and appears to be improving as the season goes on.
The Calder has about five players in the mix as of now: Hutson, the Flyers’ Matvei Michkov, the Stars’ Logan Stankoven, No. 1 overall pick Macklin Celebrini of the Sharks and Flames goalie Dustin Wolf. Hutson has as strong a case as any of them.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Linus Ullmark will be one and done
When Ullmark was acquired from the Bruins during the offseason, there was some speculation that he might turn around and leave the Senators after the last year of his contract — a “one and done” pickup like Alex DeBrincat was for Ottawa.
Instead, Ullmark committed to the Sens with a four-year, $33 million contract extension he signed in October. The contract runs through 2028-29 and carries a full no-movement clause.
Now, the only caveat I’d add here is that Ullmark hasn’t been all that good for Ottawa. Surely they won’t decide he’s one and done, would they?
Bold prediction confidence rating: 2
Jake Guentzel scores 40 goals, at a minimum
When the Lightning decided to let Steven Stamkos walk to free agency, they reallocated his cap space Jake Guentzel, who was four years his junior. They also gave Guentzel their former captain’s spot in the lineup on the wing of Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Which is indeed a good place to be for a scoring winger.
Guentzel has hit 40 goals twice in his career, both skating with Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh. He has seven goals in his first 17 games this season for the Lightning, trailing both of his talented linemates. The projects to only be around 33 goals on the season for him. But given the fireworks factory that is Tampa Bay’s top line, I still have hope.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
Mitch Marner re-signs with the Leafs
Marner had quite the offseason. That’s where speculation about trade destinations gave way to stories about how Marner was willing to sign an extension during the season to avoid unrestricted free agency next summer. Because he and new coach Craig Berube had coffee together.
Marner leads the Maple Leafs with 24 points in 19 games — an especially important start given that Auston Matthews has been out of the lineup. He’s playing his usual 200-foot game with steadily impressive offensive numbers.
There’s no telling what ultimately happens with Marner, because there’s no telling what ultimately happens with the Leafs this season. Does he become a “sacrificial” player for an underperforming team? Does Toronto get closer to a championship, making him indispensable?
One thing’s clear: There’s been much more discussion about Marner’s future in Toronto than the trade market for him.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Metropolitan Division
Canes will miss the playoff cut
As of this writing, the Hurricanes have the best points percentage in the Eastern Conference after a 13-4-0 start to the season. They have not been impacted by a defection of talent, they have a plus-27 goal differential and might have their first legit Hart Trophy candidate since Eric Staal in Martin Necas, who had 30 points in his first 17 games.
After those 17 games, the Hurricanes have a 97.2% chance of making the Stanley Cup Playoffs, according to Money Puck. Based on those percentages:
Bold prediction confidence rating: 0.28
Adam Fantilli has his breakout year
Given all the emotions that enveloped this organization after the death of star winger Johnny Gaudreau, new head coach Dean Evason has the Blue Jackets playing some really competitive hockey. They had a 7-9-2 record through 18 games, and just a minus-2 in goal differential, despite goaltending that ranked 28th in the NHL. Players like Kirill Marchenko and Yegor Chinakhov are on track for career highs in points. Adam Fantilli is not.
Fantilli has nine points through 18 games (three goals, six assists). His points per 60 minutes is down, which is a symptom of his goal-scoring pace being down — his shooting percentage has tumbled from 10.4% to 7.3%. His ice time has fluctuated during the season but is up (16:52) over his rookie campaign (15:43).
Fantilli didn’t really hit his stride offensively last season until December, when he played to nearly a point-per-game pace. (It fell off in January before a skate laceration ended his season.) His shooting percentage should improve, which could lead to an uptick in production if Fantilli can increase his shot output. But I’m not exactly confident that it’ll all add up to a “breakout” season.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 4
Devils will win the Eastern Conference
There are nights when this bold prediction seems very smart and there are nights when it feels very stupid. I’d say I’ve experienced the former more than the latter overall.
The Devils have a .619 points percentage after 21 games, which ranks them sixth in the Eastern Conference. They’re in the top 10 in goals for and against per game, although their 5-on-5 numbers are a tick below what the analytics expect.
With 10 goals and 10 assists, Nico Hischier is having the kind of season that could win him the Selke Trophy. (No, offense shouldn’t dictate who wins a defensive forward award, but let’s not be naïve about how it ends up working.) Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt are both playing to better than a point-per-game pace, while Stefan Noesen and Paul Cotter look like two of the best offseason acquisitions for anyone.
So a lot has gone right for the Devils, except the thing they need to go the most right: Their revamped goaltending. Jacob Markstrom has played to minus-1.3 goals saved above expected, and is in the negative for wins above replacement. Jake Allen has been the better goalie, but he’s not the guy tasked with being New Jersey’s high-profile savior in goal.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Mathew Barzal will set a new career scoring mark
I made this prediction because I was really excited to see how the line of Barzal, Bo Horvat and Anthony Duclair clicked as a trio. And they cooked together: 68.1% goals-for percentage at 5-on-5.
The problem is that “cooking” was about as long as it takes to make microwave popcorn. They played less than 60 minutes total together. Duclair was injured on Oct. 19 and hasn’t played since. Then Barzal was injured on Oct. 30 and hasn’t returned to the lineup.
Barzal had five points in 10 games before his injury. His 85-point career high from 2017-18 is probably not getting eclipsed given the time he lost. However, the beauty of this prediction is in its vagueness: If he comes roaring back to beat his career high of 1.04 points per game, I think that qualifies.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 5
Rangers, Shesterkin get new deal done
Through 17 games, the Rangers’ star goaltender has a .911 save percentage in going 8-4-1. He also doesn’t have a contract beyond this season, as the sides couldn’t come to an agreement before the season.
My colleague Emily Kaplan reports that Shesterkin’s camp thinks he’s “the team’s most important player, so he should be the top-paid player on the team. Currently, that’s winger Artemi Panarin at $11.64 million.” That squares with reports that Shesty could be seeking upwards of $12 million in average annual vale in his next contract.
So one can understand why a deal hasn’t gotten done quite yet, give that gap between the ask and what the Rangers hope the contract looks like.
I think that Shesterkin knows whatever team could offer him that scratch on the UFA market isn’t going to have, like, Adam Fox on their blue line next decade. Which is to say that he’d probably be better off with the Rangers than taking Philadelphia or Utah’s money. Both sides want to get this done. They’ll figure it out.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 9
Jamie Drysdale stays healthy, breaks out
My hopes were high for Drysdale, as he came into Flyers camp in great shape and looked like he was going to see time alongside defensive defenseman Nick Seeler, who was a great complement to Sean Walker last season.
There are not very high anymore, alas. Drysdale has three points (one goal, two assists) in 15 games, and has already been out of the lineup with an injury. Five years into his NHL career, it’s unfortunately been more of the same for the sixth overall pick in the 2020 draft.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 1
The power play finishes top 10
It’s been a disastrous season for the Penguins in just about every way, as their 7-10-4 start has them ahead of only the Montreal Canadiens in Eastern Conference points percentage through 21 games. The future of coach Mike Sullivan is a daily conversation, as is speculation about whether or not Sidney Crosby wants to suffer through being on a lottery team.
Found within the smoldering wreckage of this Penguins season are special teams units that actually aren’t that bad. Pittsburgh’s penalty kill ranked ninth through 21 games (82.5%). Their power play is in the top half of the league (14th, 19.6%) with room for improvement. It’s markedly better than the 15.3% conversation rate they posted last season, which ranked 30th.
So new assistant coach David Quinn has made a positive different with the man advantage, for a unit that has at least three players with Hall of Fame credentials in Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Erik Karlsson. Add in Bryan Rust, Kris Letang and Rickard Rakell, and there’s enough talent here to get this group to 24% efficiency, which would be top 10. Although the seemingly inevitable fire sale from this roster could impact that.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Alex Ovechkin passes Wayne Gretzky
It was extraordinary to watch Alex Ovechkin stack goal on goal to start this season at 39 years old. He came into camp in excellent shape, was determined to prove doubters wrong after a disappointing postseason and had the carrot of the Wayne Gretzky’s career goals record of 894.
But this wasn’t “the old guy still got it!” With 15 goals through 18 games, this was the hottest start Ovechkin has ever had. Not at 22. Not at 32. At 39 years old. That’s beyond extraordinary.
Unfortunately, the Gretzky chase took a detour this week when Ovechkin injured his leg against Utah and is week-to-week for the Capitals. He’s 27 goals away from passing The Great One. Teammate Tom Wilson said Ovechkin will be “back stronger than ever” when he returns from injury.
Based on the start, I was at a “10” he’d break it. The injury gives me some pause.
Bold prediction confidence rating: (Great) 8
Central Division
Seth Jones is traded
Jones is going to miss about a month with a foot injury, which will obviously hurt his audition for other teams. Assuming he’ll be traded, which remains just an assumption at this point.
Jones had 10 points in 17 games for the Blackhawks, earning half of those while quarterbacking their power play. He’s first in the NHL in average ice time (25:43), one of the trademark aspects of the defenseman’s game for years.
The logic behind this prediction was that a rising salary cap would make Jones’s $9.5 million AAV on his contract (which run through 2029-30) more palatable to another team. If he showed an uptick in play — or if another general manager felt his underwhelming numbers in Chicago were due to the Blackhawks being terrible rather than a deficiency with Jones — perhaps there would be interest.
Again, I don’t know anything concrete here, despite some digital hockey media sites treating as news my pondering of Edmonton GM Stan Bowman going after the player he signed in Chicago. But I do know top-pairing defensemen are hard to come by. And I know the Blackhawks remain a team with about a dozen holes to fill.
Perhaps GM Kyle Davidson sees Jones as part of the long-term plan for Connor Bedard & Co., despite not having traded for him or signed him. Or perhaps, if the conditions are right, he moves him to a contender.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 4
Gabriel Landeskog wins the Masterton Trophy
Landeskog finally returned to the ice in an NHL arena this month … to present former teammate Erik Johnson of the Flyers with a framed portrait to celebrate the defenseman’s 1,000th game.
OK, not the return we were hoping to see. It also came a few weeks after Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said Landeskog suffered a setback in his training, as the captain tries to return from knee surgery followed by cartilage transplant surgery that has kept him out of the Colorado lineup for two seasons. The Avalanche have kept hope alive that Landeskog can return, but there’s no timetable for that comeback.
The Masterton Trophy is handed out to the player who “best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication.” Landeskog hasn’t played since June 26, 2022. If his long journey back ends with him even playing one game for the Avalanche this season, that might be enough to earn him the award. If he plays, which remains a longshot at this point.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
Stars win the Western Conference
It’s hard to really focus on any other contender in the Western Conference when you have the Jets steamrolling the league at the top of the standings and the Oilers struggling to find their footing as they shake off a Stanley Cup Final hangover.
Lingering between those extremes are the Stars, who have lost in the conference finals in consecutive seasons. They’re right near the top of the league in goals-against average, with Jake Oettinger making his case for Team USA goalie (plus-6.5 goals saved above expected). Casey DeSmith was an upgrade as his backup as well.
But the offense has some trouble spots. It turns out replacing Joe Pavelski on the team’s top line isn’t that simple, as the revamped unit with Wyatt Johnston joining Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz was a defensive sieve. Coach Peter DeBoer has tried those three in different combos around the lineup, trying to find something that clicks. Robertson has four goals in 17 games; Johnston, one of the best young goal-scorers in the league, has two goals in 17 games.
The news is better with Matt Duchene, who scored 10 goals and is playing above a point-per-game pace; and Logan Stankoven, who is the leader for the Calder Trophy early in the season.
There’s still plenty of time for the Stars to find their groove offensively, and for GM Jim Nill to make his customary augmentations to a roster that has Stanley Cup championship potential with its balance between young stars and established veterans.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Jesper Wallstedt takes Filip Gustavsson‘s job
With Marc-Andre Fleury hanging up his mask after this season, the Wild’s talented top goalie prospect Jesper Wallstedt is expected to ascend to their NHL tandem. I figured that might happen in 2024-25 thanks to Filip Gustavsson. But through 14 games, that was a very misguided notion.
Gustavsson has backstopped the Wild to a 9-3-2 record, and a stellar .926 save percentage and league-best 2.07 goals-against average. He has 7.1 goals saved above expected, per Money Puck. The Wild reportedly shopped him during the offseason after a middling 2023-24 (.899 save percentage) but nothing materialized. Talk about your happy accidents.
There’s still a chance the Wild move Gustavsson before his limited trad protection kicks in next summer, but that’s an offseason move because Minnesota is a contender in the West. If Wallstedt takes anyone’s game, it might be Fleury has he tampers down later it the season. But he’s not catching the Gus bus through the first quarter of the season.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 1
Roman Josi wins the Norris Trophy
This prediction was based on how good the Predators were projected to be this season after their blockbuster summer of veteran additions like Steven Stamkos. That should tell you all you need to know about the quality of this prediction 19 games into the season.
The Predators are one of the NHL’s biggest disappointments, sitting at 31st in the league in points percentage, one Chicago Blackhawks away from the basement. They’ve had three separate losing streaks of three or more games. They’ve been messier than Broadway at 2 a.m. on a Sunday morning.
Alas, Josi has not been immune to this catastrophe. He has 14 points in 19 games, which is quite good for most defensemen but way off the mark from his previous three seasons. He’s also a minus-12, which would be the worst rating of his career if it holds. There have been only three defensemen in the last 30 years to win the Norris with a negative plus/minus: Rob Blake in 1997-98 (-3), Nicklas Lidstrom in 2010-11 (-2) and Erik Karlsson in 2022-23, who convinced voters to look away from his minus-26 by scoring 101 points.
Here’s the thing about Nashville: It’s hard to count out a team that put together a streak of 16 wins in 18 games last season. Josi was well over a point-per-game during that stretch. So it’s possible last season’s Norris runner-up can turn his season around. But it’s hard to imagine it would be a sharp enough turn to overcome the season Cale Makar is having (27 points in 19 games) in his pursuit of a second Norris win.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 2
Doug Armstrong wins both offer sheet signings
GM Doug Armstrong sent shockwaves through the NHL when he signed Edmonton forward Dylan Holloway and defenseman Philip Broberg to offer sheets in the offseason. We had seen only two teams dabble in the dark arts of restricted free agent thievery in the previous decade: The Canadiens and Hurricanes, during the “I’m taking your Jesperi Kotkaniemi because you tried to take my Sebastian Aho” kerfuffle.
The early returns are great for the Blues. Broberg has nine points through 12 games, which is already a career high for the defensive defenseman despite missing time with a leg injury. He’s skating 19:34 per game and the Blues are giving up 0.9 goals per 60 minutes when he’s on the ice.
Holloway has had quite a noteworthy first 20 games with the Blues. He was stretchered off the bench after taking a puck to the neck against Tampa Bay in early November but didn’t miss a game. Holloway has eight points in 20 games, one point away from matching his career best with the Oilers.
Perhaps the biggest win here for St. Louis is how much the Oilers miss these guys within context. Part of Edmonton’s slow start has been a lack of effective performances from their depth players. Broberg and Holloway could have certainly helped to that end.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 9
We’ll just start calling them “The Yetis”
It’s been fun to see how the sports media has handled the shorthand for the Utah Hockey Club. Do the score bugs on the screen go with UHC or UTA or UTAH? I’ve heard play-by-play announcers, desperately trying to find another form of reference beyond “Utah,” refer to this team as “The Hockey Club” during action.
All of this is to say that the sooner we get to a nickname for UHC, the better, whether it’s Yeti or Yetis or something else (but probably Yetis). If nothing else, perhaps it’ll provided a momentary distraction from how Utah’s blazing start evaporated into a sub-.500 team thanks to injuries on their defense and an unfortunate dud of a season from the usually dependable Connor Ingram in goal.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Connor Hellebuyck leads USA to 4 Nations Face-Off win
When you ask the Jets about the secrets to their historic early-season success, the conversation eventually leads back to the crease. Connor Hellebuyck won the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s best goaltender last season. His numbers so far during the Jets’ 16-3-0 start have been stellar, too. It’s not as if he’s stealing games, but he’s providing the foundation for the Jets to soar.
“Everybody knows if you don’t have goaltending, it makes for a long year. So Helly gives us that foundation,” coach Scott Arniel said. “But the biggest thing too is that we’re not just sitting and waiting on him to make 50 saves for us. We know there’s going to be breakdowns, where he’s going to have to stand up and make the save for us.”
Which he does more often than not.
Goaltending shouldn’t be the problem for Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off in February. Even with Jeremy Swayman struggling and Thatcher Demko working back from an injury, the Americans still have Hellebuyck and Jake Oettinger, with emerging options like Dustin Wolf, Anthony Stolarz and Joey Daccord in the bullpen.
But it should be Hellebuyck that gets the crease for the big games, like the one against Canada and then potentially a gold medal rematch. Rosters come out on Dec. 4. The U.S. will have their chance at international (midseason exhibition tournament that’s limited to four countries due to the Russia issue) hockey glory.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 9
Pacific Division
Cam Fowler will be traded now, Trevor Zegras later
A three-game winning streak has pushed the Ducks to .500 on the season through 20 games. They’ve been fun, in the sense that watching Leo Carlsson blossom into a young star (six goals in 18 games) is fun.
They’re also fun because the Ducks are worst in expected goals against (3.47), shots against (34.74) and high-danger shot attempts against (14.82) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, yet they’re 14th in the NHL in goals-against average (3.00). That’s thanks to Lukas Dostal (.924 save percentage), who is second in the NHL in goals saved above expected (9.2), according to Stathletes.
With two assists in 12 games, Fowler hasn’t been all that fun. He’s currently out two to four weeks with an upper-body injury as well. Fowler, 32, has two seasons left on his contract before unrestricted free agency. He makes $6.5 million against the salary cap and has limited trade protection. His value isn’t exactly high at the moment, but perhaps the Ducks can find a taker with some retained salary to open playing time for a younger defenseman.
Zegras, meanwhile, continues to languish under Ducks head coach Greg Cronin. He has two goals in 18 games, to go along with four assists. That was after 15 points in 31 games last season, which was interrupted by a broken ankle. Trade rumors swirled around him last summer. The guess here is that he’s moved in the offseason, with one year left before restricted free agency.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
The front office stubbornly refuses to tank
Watching Dustin Wolf excitedly celebrate a shootout win over the Islanders this week cliched it for me: The Calgary team is going to be pesky all season, will finish three to five points out of a playoff spot and have GM Craig Conroy crowing about a retool when this franchise needs a rebuild.
Again, that’s tough when the goaltending isn’t terrible, and both Wolf and Dan Vladar have been better than average. In Wolf’s case, he might be playing himself into the rookie of year conversation. We had this tandem 29th in our preseason rankings, but with one goalie expert’s caveat: “They have a tandem that could make this ranking look very silly.”
If Wolf keeps playing like this and the Flames score a bit more — being better than 15% on the power play would help to that end — then the tank is empty. Again, probably not for the betterment of the franchise in the long term, but Conroy got what he wanted. (Also, please check out this story for the convoluted scenarios surrounding Calgary’s first-round picks.)
Bold prediction confidence rating: 10
Evander Kane will get the LTIR special
Kane underwent abdominal surgery basically on the eve of the regular season, with the Oilers saying that “recovery from the procedure is expected to take a minimum of five to six months.” His $5.125 million cap hit is currently on long-term injured reserve, giving the Oilers just over $4.3 million in current cap space.
Kevin Weekes has reported that Kane could return to the Oilers “in early 2025,” and given the team’s middling start they could probably use his offensive pop back in the lineup. That said, the original prognosis would have had him back in March, roughly one month before the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin. Until the CBA is amended, teams are allowed to have a player on long-term injured reserve for Game 82 of the regular season and then in their lineup for Game 1 of the playoffs.
Obviously, we don’t believe any NHL GM would traffic in such salary cap shenanigans … especially one in Stan Bowman, who was one of the first to use the CBA loophole nine years ago when Patrick Kane went from LTIR to playoff-ready for the Blackhawks.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Quinton Byfield will break 70 points
Byfield entered the season with a bunch of expectations placed on him, not only due to his 20-goal, 55-point breakout season in 2023-24, but because of the five-year, $31.25 millon contract extension bestowed upon him by the team.
Byfield started the season in the middle of Kevin Fiala and Warren Foegele, played up with Anze Kopitar as he did last season, and then skated with Foegele and Alex Laferriere. But the talented Kings forward just hasn’t gotten going, with two goals and seven assists through 19 games.
Obviously this is anything but a 70-point pace for Byfield. He’s pressing too hard to make plays and only has one multi-point game this season. He’s 22 years old. It happens. You live and learn.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 2
Macklin Celebrini will win the Calder
As mentioned earlier, the first ESPN NHL Awards Watch clearly indicated support from the voters for Sharks rookie star Macklin Celebrini, who had already lit up the highlight reel a couple of times this season. The problem was that an early-season injury had limited his team to just eight games as of Wednesday, while some of his rookie peers had seen more action. Logan Stankoven, the early leader for the Calder, had 14 points in 17 games, for example.
It’s not automatic that the No. 1 overall pick in the prior NHL draft wins rookie of the year, although it might feel that way given the last 20 years, when Alex Ovechkin, Patrick Kane, Nathan MacKinnon, Aaron Ekblad, Auston Matthews and most recently Connor Bedard all took home the Calder. Overall, it’s happened only 12 times since 1963.
Celebrini’s five points have come in three games, including an overtime winner against the Red Wings this week. If he improves on that cadence, he could be the NHL’s top rookie forward. But he has to stay in the lineup. Points-per-game arguments aren’t always winners in the Calder race. As Connor McDavid learned in 2016.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Shane Wright will quiet the critics
Before the season, we said Wright didn’t need a “breakout season.” He just needed to show progress. Some level of proof of concept that the fourth overall pick from 2022 was transforming into an NHL player.
Alas, the critics will be anything but quieted if this season continues the way it’s going for Wright. The 20-year-old had a goal and an assist in his first 18 games for the Kraken, with his ice time dropping to 12:25 on average. Dan Bylsma made him a healthy scratch in consecutive games — and that’s a coach that saw him amass 47 points in 57 games in the AHL last season.
Wait ’til next year?
Bold prediction confidence rating: 1
Elias Pettersson will bounce back big
Few bold predictions have shifted so dramatically in the last couple of weeks. Pettersson had four points in his first 10 games of the season, creating a cottage industry of hand-wringing in the Vancouver media about his performance. Then Petey tallied nine points in eight games, including five goals, to calm everyone down.
His 13 points in 18 games still isn’t up to the level of that 102-point season that we hoped he’d approach from a production standpoint. But he’s just started heating up, and at the right time for the shorthanded Canucks.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 5
Golden Knights win a playoff round
Obviously we can’t grade this one out until the postseason, but the Golden Knights have already shown this bar is clearable for them.
The Golden Knights were first in the Pacific Division after 18 games, with a plus-15 goal differential. They’ve been outscoring their problems: 4.00 goals per game vs. 3.17 goals-against per game. Before Mark Stone went out with an injury, his line with Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev was cooking, to the level of 5.67 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Eichel leads the team with 28 points in 18 games. Pavel Dorofeyev led the team with nine goals in a breakout season. He was second in individual expected goals on the Knights at 5-on-5 last season.
The goaltending needs to improve, as Adin Hill and Ilya Samsonov have played to below expected levels. But the defense in front of them is what really needs to improve, as it’s currently 29th in expected goals against.
They’ve got time to sort that out. But as it stands, they look like a playoff team with enough pop to win at least a round.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7