COSTA MESA, Calif. — What is it about the magic Justin Herbert has created that has captured the attention of Los Angeles Chargers fans?
It’s certainly not his interviews.
“We gotta learn from this one and move on,” he has said after just about every loss this season, no matter how gut-wrenching.
And it’s not the number of victories he’s delivered — the Chargers have four and he has three (Tyrod Taylor had the other one in the season opener at the Cincinnati Bengals before his lung was punctured) — all coming against some of the worst teams in the league.
And it’s definitely not his hair, which he entrusted his strength coach to cut to questionable results, although it is evolving.
BREAKING: Justin Herbert got a haircut. pic.twitter.com/EEU2IoEalm
— Daniel Popper (@danielrpopper) November 18, 2020
The widow’s peak does add something and the winning smile we saw Sunday definitely helps.
But he’s got the “it” factor, whatever “it” is — and it figures to get even bigger next season. We’re not talking about a 20-pound halibut, which he is fond of catching and did so just after being drafted by the Chargers.
But before “it” grows next season, Herbert will get a chance to etch his name in the record books in the final three games of 2020, starting Thursday when the Chargers (4-9) play the Las Vegas Raiders (7-6) at Allegiant Stadium (8:20 p.m. ET, Fox/NFL Network).
Here’s one explanation of “it”: Herbert is analytical and smart — he won the academic Heisman at Oregon with a 4.01 grade-point average — and he has arm talent. It’s a great combination for anyone, especially a rookie quarterback with seemingly unlimited potential. His teammates say it’s stunning to watch him grow every week.
“He kind of exploded on the scene, just the way he handled the huddle,” Chargers tight end Hunter Henry said. “The leadership in a quiet way is awesome. It’s exciting to see him kind of blossom into what he’s going to be.”
Rookie phenoms have come and gone, kind of like a bad haircut. But the Chargers don’t see Herbert going the way of his viral hairdo.
In the 12 games Herbert has started, he has completed 66.2% of his passes, going 331-of-499 for 3,467 yards and 25 touchdown passes. Herbert finds himself a mere two touchdown passes behind Baker Mayfield‘s rookie record of 27, which he set in 2018 with the Cleveland Browns.
Herbert has already set rookie marks for most consecutive games with multiple touchdown passes (7) and most games with three or more touchdown passes (5). He needs one more 300-yard passing game to set the rookie record for most in a season — he currently has six, which is tied with Andrew Luck’s 2012 output with the Indianapolis Colts.
Let’s compare Herbert’s rookie stats through 12 games to full-season rookie stats of others:
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Mayfield completed 63.8% of his passes for 3,725 passing yards and 27 touchdowns in 2018. Herbert should pass this by the end of the season, perhaps as early as Thursday.
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Cam Newton completed 60% of his passes for 4,051 yards and 21 passing touchdowns while rushing for 706 yards and 14 TDs for the Carolina Panthers in 2011. Herbert has a combined 28 touchdowns (25 passing, three rushing).
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Russell Wilson completed 64.1% of his passes over 16 starts for the Seattle Seahawks in 2012, throwing for 3,118 yards and 26 touchdowns while running for four touchdowns and 489 yards. Herbert has 185 yards rushing thus far this season.
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Dak Prescott had 16 starts for the Dallas Cowboys in 2016, completing 67.8% of his passes for 3,667 yards and 23 touchdowns while adding 282 yards and six touchdowns on the ground.
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Ben Roethlisberger completed 66.4% of his passes for 2,621 yards and 17 touchdowns while adding one rushing score in 13 starts with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2004.
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Dan Fouts came to the Chargers from Oregon, much like Herbert, in 1973. In his rookie year with the San Diego Chargers, the eventual Hall of Famer played in 10 games, starting six, and completed 44.8% of his passes (87-of-194) for 1,126 yards, including six passing touchdowns. He ended up becoming a Chargers legend.
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In 2002, another Oregon Ducks legend, Joey Harrington (who Herbert followed religiously as a child in Eugene, Oregon), started 12 of 14 games with the Detroit Lions and completed 50% his passes, going 215-of-429 for 2,294 yards and 12 touchdowns with 16 interceptions.
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While another Chargers great, Philip Rivers, didn’t start as a rookie in 2004, he did become the Chargers’ starting quarterback in 2006, a title he’d hold until leaving for the Colts this past offseason. He started all 16 games that season (and one in the playoffs), completing 61.7% of his throws (284-of-460) for 3,388 yards and 22 touchdowns with nine interceptions.
Herbert belongs in this group, to be sure. And he could surpass each of these players in several different categories in the finishing stretch against the Raiders, Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs.
“It’s huge, [Herbert] calling the offense,” running back Austin Ekeler said. “Being the leader and getting us in position so we can be successful. He’s making plays with his legs, his feet, he’s putting the game together and we’re scoring the points.”
Herbert has already been named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Month in October and November. He could add to that list in December. Most are predicting he will be named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. Not that records mean anything to Herbert.
“I’d rather win the next three games,” he said matter-of-factly.
Of course, he did.
And against the Atlanta Falcons this past Sunday, he accomplished another first: leading his team on a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter.
Herbert started on his own 26 with 30 seconds left with the game tied 17-17 and completed a key 15-yard pass to Henry on third down to move the ball near midfield. Then he found wide receiver Tyron Johnson on a 25-yard throw to the Falcons’ 26 with 10 seconds left, leading to Michael Badgley‘s 43-yard, game-winning field goal.
“I’m sure it’s going to do a lot for him,” Chargers coach Anthony Lynn said of Herbert’s drive. “For him to go down the field … to stand in that pocket and throw the ball down the field the way he did. I’m sure it’s going to go a long way for his confidence.”
His confidence could have been shot several times, as the Chargers have lost seven one-score games since Herbert took over as starter, along with a dispiriting 45-0 shutout loss to the New England Patriots in Week 13. But it hasn’t been.
“Experience is the best teacher,” Herbert said.
And now he has some of that.