Connelly’s SEC East preview: Can anyone knock Georgia off its perch?

Florida won it for the first five years, then Tennessee and Florida split the next five. Georgia won three of four, then Florida did the same. Georgia won two of three, then Missouri came out of nowhere to win back-to-back. Florida won twice as Georgia was transitioning into the Kirby Smart era, during which Georgia has won five of six. The SEC East has always had a lead dog of sorts, even if that team has changed through the years.

Thirty-two years after it pioneered the divisional structure — a move so significant that we made a documentary about it — the SEC will be adopting the trend of ditching its divisions when it adds Oklahoma and Texas in 2024. (We’ll see if the league eventually does the right thing and moves to nine conference games so its teams can actually all play each other. Baby steps.)

As with the Big Ten West (a number of defense-centric teams will battle for the last title) and East (oh, hey, Michigan and Ohio State start out on top yet again), it feels the SEC East will go out with a familiar storyline: The lead Dawg is a heavy favorite. Can Tennessee or anyone else defy the odds and threaten the two-time defending national champion? And which teams might stand out among the division’s customarily large middle class?

Let’s preview the SEC East one last time!

Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 133 FBS teams. The previews will include 2022 breakdowns, 2023 previews and burning questions for each team.

Earlier previews: Conference USA, part 1 | Conference USA, part 2 | MAC East | MAC West | MWC Mountain | MWC West | Sun Belt West | Sun Belt East | AAC, part 1 | AAC, part 2 | Independents | ACC, part 1 | ACC, part 2 | Pac-12, part 1 | Pac-12, part 2 | Big 12, part 1 | Big 12, part 2 | Big Ten West | Big Ten East

2022 recap

You probably remember what happened with Georgia. The Bulldogs soared through the regular season, scored a second-quarter knockout of LSU in the SEC championship game and survived a brutal test against Ohio State in the CFP semifinals. Then they scored a first-quarter knockout of TCU in a 65-7 title game laugher.

Elsewhere, Tennessee won 11 games and finished in the AP top 10 for the first time since 2001, South Carolina upset Tennessee and Clemson to get to eight wins for the first time since 2017, and Kentucky rode defense (and a disappointing offense) to a 7-6 record. Missouri missed a shot at a big season, losing four conference games by a combined 18 points and settling for another .500ish season, Florida did basically the same, and Vanderbilt scored a couple of late upset wins to finish an encouraging 5-7.

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2023 projections

It makes perfect sense that Georgia starts out an easy first and Tennessee starts out an easy second. The drama starts after that. The next four teams on the list are projected within 3.8 points (and 1.1 average wins) of each other. Whoever manages offensive personnel changes the best could end up with a lovely nine- or 10-win campaign. And whoever doesn’t is probably looking at 5-7 or worse.

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Burning questions

What could possibly stand in the way of a Georgia three-peat? The best case you can make for why Georgia won’t three-peat as national champion has nothing to do with what the Bulldogs will present on the field this fall.

Yes, quarterback Stetson Bennett is gone after a storybook career, but he’ll be replaced by someone with incredible credentials (probably Carson Beck). Yes, Kirby Smart’s hire of old friend Mike Bobo to replace NFL-bound offensive coordinator Todd Monken was a bit confusing considering Bobo hasn’t been in charge of a good offense since about 2017. But Monken left one hell of a playbook in his office, and Bobo hasn’t had playmakers this impressive at his disposal since he was calling plays for Georgia more than a decade ago. Yes, the defense lost another load of stars to the pros, but of the 16 players who saw 200-plus snaps last season, 12 return. And that says nothing of the new batch of blue-chippers arriving in Athens to put pressure on the upperclassmen.

Georgia begins the season No. 1 because of course it does. And the schedule offers only two projected top-20 opponents, one on the road. But if you’re looking for a reason to think a three-peat won’t happen, here’s a pretty good one: Three-peats don’t happen! Neither Nick Saban nor Bear Bryant pulled it off at Alabama. USC couldn’t do it under Pete Carroll. Oklahoma didn’t do it. Neither did Notre Dame. Miami’s whole “titles only in odd-numbered years” thing prevented The U from doing it. Even Nebraska slipped up in 1996 between its 1994, 1995 and 1997 titles. Bad breaks in close games, poorly timed injuries, shaky attention spans … something usually trips a team up.

Let’s imagine for a moment that something does actually trip the Bulldogs up. What will it be?

Quarterback mistakes at the wrong time. Beck and fellow QBs Brock Vandagriff and Gunner Stockton were infinitely higher-rated recruits than Bennett, but Bennett was mostly incredible last season, and changing not only the quarterback but also the coordinator/QBs coach could introduce some glitches.

(Counterpoint: The supporting cast is even better this year, with not only returnees in tight end — and likely Mackey Award winner — Brock Bowers, receiver Ladd McConkey and backs Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton, but also transfers Dominic Lovett of Missouri and Rara Thomas of Mississippi State; the two newbies combined for 1,472 yards and 10 TDs last season. The line returns four players with starting experience too.)

An iffy pass rush. The Georgia run defense was almost impenetrable last season, but while the pass defense was mostly excellent, it suffered some glitches. The Dawgs gave up some big plays to Kent State and Florida and allowed a combined 850 passing yards and seven touchdowns to LSU and Ohio State. The secondary has to replace corner Kelee Ringo and safety Christopher Smith, and if there’s any drop-off in the secondary, it could be an issue because the Dawgs neither blitz nor rush the passer incredibly well. No one had more than 4.5 sacks last season, and no one can match departed edge rusher Nolan Smith’s pressure rates. Give up a few too many big plays, and the season can go awry.

(Counterpoint: The pass rush was pretty average last year too. When you cover well, tackle well and dominate against the run, that’s not as big of an issue.)

Attention span issues. The Dawgs dithered against both Kent State and Missouri early in the 2022 season and had to play a perfect final 10 minutes to avoid a loss to the Tigers; their weak schedule means their odds of reaching the CFP are high, but it also means that any slip-up will be more costly.

(Counterpoint: Besides Tennessee, who are they supposed to lose to? Auburn? They probably aren’t going to overlook a rival. And the only other road games besides Tennessee are against Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech. They aren’t losing to Vanderbilt or Georgia Tech.)

Will third time be a charm for Joe Milton III? In his first start at Michigan in 2020, Milton threw for 225 yards and had a raw QBR of 94.0. His QBR for the rest of the season: 37.2. He was supplanted by Cade McNamara and transferred to Tennessee, where he once again won the starting job … and once again struggled. He went a combined 18-for-35 for 189 yards against Bowling Green and Pitt, took five sacks and got benched again, this time in favor of Hendon Hooker, who started most of the next two years.

Milton’s arm has seduced both Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh and Tennessee’s Josh Heupel. It’s one of the best arms you’ll ever see at the collegiate level. Effortless 60-yard flicks, that kind of stuff. But when it comes to football decision-making, Milton has shown limitations. He hasn’t been able to make the transition from “great thrower” to “great quarterback.”

In 2023, Milton will get something college players usually don’t: a third chance. Milton filled in for an injured Hooker late in 2022 and went a combined 30-of-49 for 398 yards, four touchdowns and no picks (with, yes, another four sacks) against first Vanderbilt, then Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Comfortable wins gave the Vols a No. 6 final AP ranking, and Milton entered the offseason as not only the presumptive starter but also, to many, a Heisman sleeper.

It’s never good preview writing to say, “Everything comes down to the quarterback” — it doesn’t exactly entice people to keep reading. But if Milton indeed takes the leap we’ve been expecting for years, the sky’s the limit. The Vols return two running backs (Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright) who combined for 1,609 yards and 23 TDs last season, plus three of last year’s top five receivers (and big-play Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton Jr.).

Biletnikoff winner Jalin Hyatt is gone after catching 67 passes for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns, but “slot receiver in a Heupel offense” is one of the most guaranteed big-play positions in the sport — sophomore Squirrel White (30 for 481 last year) will likely have a huge year in Hyatt’s place. The line is loaded with veterans too. Milton has everything he needs for a breakthrough, and if he doesn’t take advantage of it, blue-chip freshman Nico Iamaleava might be ready sooner than later.

With the tempo that Heupel deploys, his defense is guaranteed to see a lot of plays and drives in a given season. But the Vols still jumped from 88th to 30th in defensive SP+ in 2022, and the unit’s depth should be better this year. Of 21 defenders who saw at least 200 snaps last season, 14 return, and Heupel added two BYU starters (linebacker Keenan Pili and corner Gabe Jeudy-Lally) and part-time Arizona State starting tackle Omarr Norman-Lott. Linebacker Aaron Beasley is an incredibly disruptive presence, Kamal Hadden is one of the SEC’s better cornerbacks, and while the line lacks a slam-dunk star, lots of guys have made plays at one point or another. Blue-chippers such as tackle Daevin Hobbs might be ready to play a role too. There’s a lot to like here.

How long might it take Billy Napier at Florida? It’s not hard to figure out why Florida fans seem pretty miserable right now. The Gators’ three main rivals — Georgia (two straight national titles), Tennessee (first top-10 finish in 21 years) and Florida State (highest poll finish in six years) — all enjoyed particularly high levels of play last season, while Florida went 6-7 for the second straight year. Even if the Gators had won eight or nine games, the fan base would feel pretty down about being worse than the opponents that matter most.

They’ll probably be worse than those teams in 2023 too. While Georgia will be the preseason No. 1 and the Vols and Seminoles will get lots of top-10 votes, Florida will be facing what SP+ sees as the hardest schedule in the country with another transitional roster — a new starting quarterback, at least five other new offensive starters and mega turnover at linebacker and in the secondary. Florida returns a dynamite pair of running backs in Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne, plus a stellar slot man in Ricky Pearsall, and second-year head coach Billy Napier is starting to put together the physical, oversized lines he won a lot of games with at Louisiana.

This could be a solidly improved team if either Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz or sophomore Jack Miller III come through at quarterback. But neither inspired serious confidence in the spring, and both have taken far too many sacks in their respective careers. (Granted, the sample size is pretty small with Miller.) Mertz was a celebrated recruit when he arrived in Wisconsin but ranked 67th, 76th and 80th in Total QBR in three years as a starter. Napier and offensive coordinator Rob Sale have done their best work with dual-threat quarterbacks, and Mertz … is not that. Miller might be.

Overall, it seemed like Florida was basically the same team over the past two years — the 2021 team was 6-7 and 33rd in SP+, and the 2022 team was 6-7 and 34th. But while Napier & Co. were able to engineer some growth on offense and special teams, the Gators slipped from 54th to 69th in defensive SP+. They were dreadfully inefficient, and they weren’t good enough at big-play prevention or red zone defense to pull off bend-don’t-break. They kept six or fewer players in the box most of the time in an attempt to better stop the pass and play with speed, and they didn’t really stop the pass.

Former Southern Miss coordinator Austin Armstrong takes over; he got the job by piloting an extremely aggressive and efficient Golden Eagles D, and he’ll have a size advantage most of the time thanks to players such as Desmond Watson (6-foot-5, 449 pounds!), Chris McClellan (6-foot-3, 321) and Memphis transfer Cam Jackson (6-foot-6, 355). But last year’s top four linebackers are gone, as are both safeties and nickelback Tre’Vez Johnson. If Armstrong attempts aggression with a bunch of new safety valves, the Gators could get burned quite a bit, especially considering Florida plays four projected top-10 teams and nine projected top-40 teams. This should be a borderline top-30 team itself, but there are only about three truly likely wins on the schedule. Finishing over .500 will require winning tight games against good teams.

Will newcomers fix Kentucky’s offense? As with Napier’s first year at Florida, Mark Stoops’ first Kentucky team was basically a carbon copy of the one before it. After going 2-10 with a No. 81 SP+ ranking in 2012, Stoops’ Wildcats went 2-10 and ranked 73rd. The story of his first five years was one of slow growth. But the defense finally clicked, and it’s been a different trajectory ever since.

Kentucky, 2013-17: 0.420 win percentage, 58.6 average SP+ ranking (57.2 offense, 66.6 defense)

Kentucky, 2018-22: 0.635 win percentage, 23.6 average SP+ ranking (79.4 offense, 9.4 defense)

Over the past five years, the school has had as many defenders picked in the first three rounds of the NFL draft — six — as it had in the 28 years before that. And in 2022, the Wildcats finished fourth in defensive SP+ with a relatively young unit (freshmen such as tackle Deone Walker and safety Jordan Lovett played major roles). Kentucky almost never blitzed or forced the issue, instead handcuffing opponents with brilliant tackling and frustrating zone coverage. That’s pretty replicable for 2023, though it will require a couple of new cornerbacks. Keidron Smith and Carrington Valentine were excellent, and while Andru Phillips will likely move from nickel to corner and play really well, that opens a hole at nickel.

Barring some sort of domino effect in the secondary, the defense will probably be excellent again. That the Wildcats went just 7-6 last season with this defense tells you where the primary issues were. Kentucky plummeted from 47th to 97th in offensive SP+ in 2022; quarterback Will Levis was banged up, star back Chris Rodriguez Jr. missed the first month, and three of Levis’ top four targets (and his left guard) were freshmen. That’s a recipe for regression. Still, nothing went according to plan in UK’s first year without offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who had left to become the Los Angeles Rams’ OC. Since things didn’t really go well with the Rams, either, Coen returned.

Coen was in charge of Kentucky’s only top-50 offense since 2016, and he’ll have some decent toys to play with. For starters, those key freshmen are sophomores. That includes high-efficiency slot man Barion Brown and left guard Jager Burton, both of whom were star recruits and solid contributors. (Burton is one of four returning linemen.) It also includes another veteran quarterback who, like Levis, battled through a disappointing 2022. Devin Leary comes over from NC State; after a solid 2021 and top-30 Total QBR ranking, Leary’s stats regressed in virtually every category last season, then he was lost to injury in October.

Kentucky has averaged eight wins a year over the past half-decade, and that’s pretty good living in Lexington. But if the Wildcats have grander ambitions (like, say, a repeat of 2021’s 10-win campaign), it will require Coen to capture some magic with Leary like he did with Levis two years ago.

Is Optimist or Pessimist more convincing in South Carolina? Shane Beamer is the master of optics. His first two South Carolina teams produced particularly good performances at the best possible times, generating solid buzz in the process.

In 2021, his Gamecocks went 7-6 with four losses by 25-plus points, but they thumped Florida, won the Duke’s Mayo Bowl by 17 points and signed blue-chip quarterback transfer Spencer Rattler, and Beamer took the most famous bath of the season. In 2022, the Gamecocks lost four games by double digits (including three to .500ish Arkansas, Missouri and Florida teams) but finished the regular season by pummeling Tennessee and ending a seven-game losing streak to Clemson.

Beamer’s two seasons featured one good defense (2021), one good offense (2022) and almost nonstop special teams excellence. Thanks to the combination of Beamer’s last name and a dynamite special teams coordinator in Pete Lembo, that last part probably isn’t going to change. But both the offense and defense are difficult to read heading into 2023. So let’s play a game of Optimist vs. Pessimist.

In the South Carolina offense, an optimist would note that Rattler returns, along with 900-yard receiver Antwane Wells Jr. and high-level newcomers in receiver Eddie Lewis (Memphis), tight ends Trey Knox (Arkansas) and Joshua Simon (Western Kentucky) and all-world freshman Nyckoles Harbor, who has the speed of a track star and the size of a tight end. And while the offensive line lost three starters, Beamer brought in four starters from smaller schools.

A pessimist would note that Rattler was only 65th in Total QBR last season, held back by 12 interceptions and a high sack rate (the same mistakes that held him back at Oklahoma). And now he won’t have star running back MarShawn Lloyd or receiver Jalen Brooks to lean on. The Gamecocks were reliant on big plays to overcome inefficiency (76th in success rate, 85th in three-and-out rate), but Lloyd and Brooks were the biggest providers of those big plays. Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield also is gone, replaced by Arkansas assistant Dowell Loggains. That’s a lot of change.

In the South Carolina defense, the optimist would point out that, while the Gamecocks fell from 17th to 56th in defensive SP+, the pass defense was excellent despite a pair of freshmen (safety Nick Emmanwori and nickel DQ Smith) playing major roles. Emmanwori and Smith are back, as is an absolute star in senior corner Marcellas Dial. And while there’s a lot of turnover in the front seven, the front seven last season stunk! There’s plenty of room for growth.

The pessimist would counter that the front seven didn’t just stink — that group was abysmal. South Carolina ranked 127th in rushing success rate allowed, 130th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 110th in sack rate. That sets a low bar, but things aren’t guaranteed to improve with the Gamecocks losing defensive tackle Zacch Pickens (a third-round NFL draft pick) and 10-TFL edge man Gilber Edmond (transfer to Florida State).

Is the optimist’s or pessimist’s case more convincing? And even if the optimist wins out, what’s the Gamecocks’ ceiling against the second-hardest schedule in the country?

Does Missouri have a quarterback? Like Beamer, Missouri coach Eliah Drinkwitz has done everything well at least once in his three seasons in charge. His 2021 offense was good, his 2022 defense great. He’s had three good special teams units and should have a fourth thanks to the return of burly kicker Harrison Mevis.

After two defensive coordinator changes in two years, Drinkwitz’s third hire was the charm: Blake Baker clicked beautifully in 2022 and brings back 12 of 16 players with 250-plus snaps. He’s got potential all-conference performers at every level of the defense, from lineman Darius Robinson to linebackers Ty’Ron Hopper and Chad Bailey to safety Jaylon Carlies and, especially, corners Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and Kris Abrams-Draine, who combined for not only 25 passes defended but also 3.5 TFLs and five run stops.

With the defense seemingly on a solid trajectory, one thing continues to hold Drinkwitz and Mizzou back: the quarterback position. There’s a chance Drinkwitz heads into 2023 with his fourth season-opening starter in four years.

Mind you, incumbent Brady Cook could still be the guy. He combined 2,739 passing yards with 754 pre-sack rushing yards while playing most of last season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder. After an offseason of rehab, maybe he thrives under new coordinator Kirby Moore. (Moore came over from Fresno State after Drinkwitz relinquished playcalling duties.) Or maybe he proves that last year’s limitations are permanent. Drinkwitz has long leaned on horizontal passing as an efficiency weapon, but it’s not that efficient if you can’t also stress defenses with vertical passing, and Cook’s completion rate on passes of 20-plus yards ranked 98th nationally. With two former blue-chippers in camp — sophomore Miami transfer Jake Garcia and redshirt freshman Sam Horn — Cook will have to win the job all over again.

If either Cook, Garcia or Horn thrives under Moore, the rest could take care of itself. Veteran backs Cody Schrader and Nathaniel Peat return after combining for 1,386 yards from scrimmage, and former all-world recruit Luther Burden III moves to slot receiver after an inconsistent but tantalizing freshman debut. Losing last year’s two yardage leaders (Georgia-bound Dominic Lovett and Barrett Banister) hurts, but Drinkwitz brought in a pair of big-play transfers in Theo Wease (Oklahoma) and Dannis Jackson (Ole Miss), who averaged 20.1 yards per catch last season (albeit on just 31 combined receptions). The offensive line should be Drinkwitz’s best to date, returning three starters (including second-team all-conference tackle Javon Foster), two part-time starters (freshman tackle Armand Membou was outstanding late in 2022) and three starters from elsewhere, including all-AAC guard Cam’Ron Johnson from Houston.

Mizzou ranks second in FBS in returning production, and Drinkwitz’s transfer additions on offense were astute. The Tigers are projected favorites in four of their first five games, and the fifth (home vs. Kansas State) is an almost perfect toss-up. They have a shot at a fast start and a breakthrough year … if they have a QB. Again, I don’t like saying everything comes down to one position, but it sure seems to be the case in Columbia.

Can Vandy’s scouting-and-development culture work in the portal era? When Clark Lea took over at Vanderbilt in 2021, he immediately acknowledged the need to do things differently. The Commodores have finished above .500 just three times in 40 seasons, and while the 2010s were kinder to Vandy than other decades (two nine-win seasons, plus three other bowl seasons and 6-7 finishes), they’re always pushing the boulder uphill in Nashville. Lea was one of the first coaches to create a “general manager” position, and he gave the job to 247Sports recruiting analyst Barton Simmons, an old friend. Whatever success Lea has at Vanderbilt, it will come from excellent scouting and development.

That the Commodores won two of their last three games last season — tight upsets of Kentucky and Florida — certainly created some optimism. Ray Davis and quarterback Mike Wright combined to rush for 255 yards against UK’s excellent defense, and we briefly got a glimpse of what a successful future might look like.

That glimpse lasted only so long. Davis transferred to Kentucky, Wright to Mississippi State. In the spring, promising young corner Jadais Richard transferred to Miami. In two seasons, 12 Commodores have transferred to other power-conference programs. In the era of the transfer portal and freer player movement, the path to riding development to success seems a lot bumpier. If you develop 20 players into potential stars, you might keep only 10 of them in town.

Vandy does still return some exciting players: Wideout Will Sheppard is efficient, defensive tackle Christian James is extremely disruptive for a 290-pounder, linebacker Ethan Barr is a sure tackler and coordinator Nick Howell got above-average disruption out of safeties De’Rickey Wright and Jaylen Mahoney and nickel CJ Taylor. Even so, there are fewer proven player here than on any other SEC East roster. And even with those good defensive players, Vandy was a dismal 94th in defensive SP+ last year.

If Vanderbilt surprises in 2023, it feels like the offense will be the reason why, even with the transfers. Sophomore AJ Swann was the primary passer in 2022 and had bright moments against Ole Miss and South Carolina, and last year’s top four wideouts, including Sheppard and sophomore slot Jayden McGowan, return. Of the eight linemen who started at least one game, seven are back, including a rock-solid center in Julian Hernandez. Vandy is starting over at running back, but if the line is good, the running game will at least be serviceable.

A weak nonconference slate with three opponents projected 107th or worse will give Vandy a chance to build early confidence, but the Commodores are projected as double-digit underdogs in each of their nine other games. Still, if they’re able to both find some new, young stars and then hold on to them, this will be a pretty successful season.

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My 10 favorite players

TE Brock Bowers, Georgia. This play has made me laugh so many times over the past 10 months.

RB Trevor Etienne, Florida. Etienne’s upside is immense. Against South Carolina and Florida State, in two of Florida’s best offensive performances, the freshman rushed 25 times for 229 yards. He also averaged 25 yards per kick return in 2022.

That poor safety went from “Oh, cute, a trick play” to “Oh, no, ohhhhh, no” in about 0.8 seconds.

Slot Squirrel White, Tennessee. Yards per route is a lovely, all-encompassing measure that combines explosiveness with both reliability and usage — if you average 20 yards per catch, but you’re almost never thrown the ball when you’re running a route, your average isn’t going to be great. Jalin Hyatt averaged 3.3 yards per route last season while winning the Biletnikoff Award, a phenomenal average.

Squirrel White averaged 4.1. He could have an amazing 2023.

WR Antwane Wells Jr., South Carolina. In the Gamecocks’ late-season upsets of Tennessee and Clemson, the James Madison transfer caught 20 passes for 308 yards and two scores, giving him four 100-yard games in his first SEC season. What’s he got for an encore?

Slot Ricky Pearsall, Florida. In seven games against ranked opponents, Pearsall caught 24 balls for 485 yards and four scores; in six against unranked foes, he had nine for 176. If Mertz or Miller can throw a better deep ball than Anthony Richardson, Pearsall will benefit immensely.

DT Deone Walker, Kentucky. He’s 6-foot-6 and 348 pounds, and last season he averaged nearly 40 snaps per game (and led an excellent UK run defense in run stops), all as a three-star true freshman. He also batted down three passes.

DT Christian James, Vanderbilt. The fifth-year junior from Memphis led Vandy in tackles for loss (7.5) and sacks (three), and per Sports Info Solutions, he wasn’t credited with a single missed tackle all season. If he gets his mitts on you, you’re down.

LB Smael Mondon Jr., Georgia. He’s a 220-pound inside linebacker who sticks his nose in the run game better than just about anyone. He led the Dawgs with 13 run stops, and he’s basically an extra safety in pass coverage.

LB Aaron Beasley, Tennessee. Tennessee’s defense took a lovely step forward in 2022, and Beasley led the unit in tackles (82, one every 6.8 snaps), TFLs (13.5) and run stops (19) and was second in sacks (3). He also broke up three passes. He’s everywhere.

CB Kris Abrams-Draine, Missouri. Not only did Abrams-Draine break up 14 passes and allow a paltry 27.8 QBR in Blake Baker’s man-heavy system, he also had the most tackles in FBS (43) without being credited with a single missed tackle. As a cornerback!

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Anniversaries

In 1998, 25 years ago, Tennessee ran the table. We talk a lot about the what-ifs of 1998 — what if Ohio State hadn’t lost to Michigan State, what if Kansas State hadn’t lost to Texas A&M, what if Florida State’s Chris Weinke hadn’t gotten injured — but one team had no what-ifs whatsoever.

Phil Fulmer’s Tennessee Vols endured the loss of star quarterback Peyton Manning and two other first-round picks and somehow improved. They ended a five-year losing streak to Steve Spurrier’s Florida team, survived a classic against No. 10 Arkansas by the skin of their teeth, scored the final 14 points of a 24-14 SEC championship game win over Mississippi State and kept a Chris Weinke-less FSU at arm’s reach in the first BCS championship game to win their first national title in 47 years.

In 2008, 15 years ago, Florida stole Georgia’s thunder. Georgia finished the wacky 2007 season playing like the best team in the country. Mark Richt’s Bulldogs had beaten both defending national champion Florida and Nick Saban’s first Alabama team and won three late games against ranked foes by an average score of 37-14. They returned stars such as quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno and were the preseason No. 1 for the first time. But they lost to Alabama in September — an early Saban statement game in which the Tide bolted to a 31-0 lead and won 41-30 — and got their doors blown off 49-10 by a Florida team on a mission.

An early loss to Ole Miss had prompted Tim Tebow’s “Promise,” and Urban Meyer’s Gators won their last eight regular-season games by an average of 52-12. They scored the final 14 points of a 31-20 SEC championship game win over Saban’s Tide, then scored the final 10 points of a 24-14 win over Oklahoma in the BCS championship game. What seemed like Georgia’s moment instead became Florida’s second title in three seasons. (Georgia’s moment arrived in the 2020s.)

Also in 2008, Vanderbilt had itself a moment. Vanderbilt had finished with 25 straight losing seasons heading into 2008. The school had managed to produce a first-round quarterback (Jay Cutler) but had won a combined 11 games in four years with him behind center. They had started 5-3 in 2007 but lost four straight to finish 5-7. In 2008, the Commodores beat Florida-conquering Ole Miss to move to 4-0, then hosted “GameDay” and beat Auburn 14-13 the next week.

Then they lost four straight. Were they going to let another bowl opportunity slip through their grasp? Nope! They bolted to a 24-7 halftime lead at Kentucky and held on for a 31-24 win. And in front of a home crowd in the Music City Bowl, they beat Boston College 16-14 on a late Bryant Hahnfeldt field goal. First bowl in 26 years, first bowl win in 53.

In 2013, 10 years ago, Missouri came within 19 minutes of the BCS championship game. After going 5-7 in their SEC debut in 2012, Gary Pinkel’s Tigers were picked last in the SEC East. But they cracked the AP Top 25 after a 5-0 start, then leaped all the way to fifth after beating Georgia and Florida by a combined 24 points. After an overtime heartbreaker against South Carolina, they won their last four games to clinch an East title in just their second year in the league.

They almost made it even further. After 41 minutes in the SEC championship game, with a spot in the BCS title game on the line, Missouri led Auburn and Gus Malzahn’s Cardiac Tigers 34-31. But as was the case in the 2007 Big 12 championship game, Mizzou gave up two quick touchdowns late in the third quarter and eventually cratered 59-42. Still, a 41-31 win over Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl gave them their second top-five finish in seven seasons. And they’d win another East title in 2014 for good measure.

Also in 2013, Steve Spurrier led South Carolina to its first top-five finish. We probably don’t talk enough about the fact that Spurrier has a solid claim to be the greatest coach ever at two different East schools. He didn’t win as much at South Carolina as he had at Florida, but after a slow building process, he engineered one hell of a peak in Columbia too. The Gamecocks won their first East title in 2010, then went 33-6 with three straight top-10 finishes from 2011 to 2013. The 2013 team, the last one led by quarterback Connor Shaw and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, lost early to Georgia and suffered an upset loss to Tennessee that kept it out of the SEC championship game. But it finished the year with wins over Clemson and Wisconsin and finished in the AP top five for the first and only time to date.

In 2018, five years ago, Kentucky had its best season since the 1970s. Here’s a complete list of coaches who have led Kentucky to (a) a top-15 finish and (b) a bowl win in the same season: Bear Bryant and Mark Stoops. That’s it.

Stoops’ 2018 Wildcats ended a 32-year losing streak to Florida and beat No. 14 Mississippi State by three touchdowns. They endured a midseason funk (three losses in five games) and then found fifth gear again late, blowing out rival Louisville and beating Penn State in the Citrus Bowl to finish 10-3 and 12th in the AP poll. They won 10 games again four years later. Stoops isn’t Bear Bryant, but he’s the best Kentucky coach since the Bear.